October 27, 2004
That Confusing Thing Called "Reality"
The Program on International Policy Attitutdes (PIPA) has recently released a study entitled The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters. PIPA is a joint program of the Center on Policy Attitudes (COPA) and the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland.
According to the PIPA press release a large majority of Bush supporters
- believe that before the war Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or a major program for building them
- assume that most experts believe Iraq had WMD and that this was the conclusion of the recently released report by Charles Duelfer
- believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda and that clear evidence of this support has been found
- believe that most experts also have this view and that that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission
And yet, majorities of Bush supporters and Kerry supporters agree that if Iraq did not have WMD or was not providing support to al Qaeda, the US should not have gone to war with Iraq.
Page 14 of the study provides this analysis:
So why is this the case? And, more specifically, why are Bush supporters holding so clinging so tightly to beliefs that have been so visibly refuted? As discussed, one key possible explanation for why Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq had WMD or a major WMD program, and supported al Qaeda is that they continue to hear the Bush administration confirming these beliefs. Another possible explanation is that Bush supporters cling to these beliefs because they are necessary for their support for the decision to go to war with Iraq.
Asked whether the US should have gone to war with Iraq if US intelligence had concluded that Iraq was not making WMD or providing support to al Qaeda, 58% of Bush supporters said the US should not have, and 61% assume that in this case the president would not have. To support the president and to accept that he took the US to war based on mistaken assumptions is difficult to bear, especially in light of the continuing costs in terms of lives and money. Apparently, to avoid this cognitive dissonance, Bush supporters suppress awareness of unsettling information.
The report then goes on to explain that Bush engendered such loyalty from his supporters during the aftermath of 9/11, that they will resist any information that undermines their view of him as a "capable protector." The report suggests that one of the reasons Bush refuses to admit his mistakes is that he is afraid it would shatter this idealized image.
The report closes with the warning that "there are also risks in succeeding in getting elected based on false beliefs. The number of people in the public who see through the illusion will likely continue to grow, eating away at the implied mandate of an election. Further, the cohesion of society can be damaged by a persisting and fundamental division in the perception of what is real, undermining pathways to consensus and mutual sacrifice, and making the country increasingly difficult to govern."
Posted by Lori at 9:36 AM | Permalink